Sizzling Summer Ahead: Prepare for Soaring Food Prices?
Foreseeable heatwave prompts question: Will food costs persistently escalate? - Anticipated Scorching Heatwave Ahead: Will Food Costs Continue Soaring?
By Matthias UrbachApprox. Reading Time: 3 minutes
Lately, tractor trails have turned fields into dust bowls, a sign of the ongoing drought plaguing Germany. Since February, large swathes of the country have seen scant rainfall. "We're currently enduring an unusually severe spring drought," says Jacob Bernhardt, researcher at the Thünen Institute. "It's as arid as it's ever been since weather records began."
A nation known for its rain, farmers welcome precipitation more in springtime when their crops germinate and thrive. "In the past, rainfall was almost assured," farmer Martin Schulz, chair of the Independent Farmers Association (AbL), tells Der Spiegel. His farm sits in Wendland. "However, since 2018, we've had years with insufficient rain throughout the growing season. That was in 2018, 2019, parts of 2020, and even this year." With worries mounting, farmers fear another dry spell.
Summer Forecast: Scorching Hot Days Ahead
Experts confirm that this year's spring drought will likely pave the way for a far hotter summer. Lara Wallberg, researcher at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, studies heat's impact on North Atlantic deep water temperatures and their subsequent influence on European weather patterns. "When heat accumulates in the North Atlantic for more than three years, an exceptionally hot summer becomes highly probable," Wallberg tells Der Spiegel. Such heat buildup is underway this year. The German Weather Service (DWD)'s forecasts also indicate a hotter and drier summer than usual, with higher temperatures leading to an approximate 7% increase in water evaporation, intensifying the dry spell.
While overall inflation is easing, many food prices remain elevated. Drought and excessive heat, accompanied by various weather extremes, are behind product shortages for items ungrown in Germany, such as oranges, cocoa, coffee, and olive oil.
Immediate Need for Rain in the Next Fortnight
According to agricultural meteorologist Andreas Brömsers of the DWD, Germany's farmlands remain relatively unaffected at present. However, in parched regions like the entire north, seed germination and plant stress are emerging issues for spring-planted crops like sugar beets and corn. "If no substantial precipitation occurs in the next two weeks, conditions will become critical in many areas," Brömsers warns, emphasizing that even established plants like winter cereals could be compromised.
Although weather forecasts predict increased cloud cover and scattered showers in the near future, substantial rainfall is expected primarily in the southern regions. Whether this moisture reaches the rest of the country within the subsequent 14 days remains uncertain.
Five percent of Germany's agricultural land is irrigable, usually used for vegetable production. Vegetables account for a negligible portion of total agricultural output. In cereals and grasslands, irrigation isn't economically feasible. If rain is scarce during the summer, large-scale crop failures, even complete crop loss, could occur. Although imports can mitigate these losses, farmers' incomes would be impacted, and consumers might see soaring prices in supermarkets
The first cut of grass for livestock feed has already suffered. In case other feed sources dwindle, meat and dairy products will likely be the first to exhibit price hikes in grocery stores.
Climate Change, a Main Culprit Behind Rising Food Prices
Climate change contributes to increased food costs during heatwaves and droughts primarily through its effects on agricultural production. The rise in food prices is largely due to:
Disruptions to Agricultural Production
- Supply Shocks: Heatwaves and droughts can cause significant drops in crop yields and quality, leading to supply-side disruptions. This decrease in available food products can precipitate price increases due to reduced supply[1].
- Crop Sensitivity: Some crops are sensitive to extreme weather conditions. For instance, heat stress can harm crops like grains, potatoes, and cocoa, resulting in shortages and price spikes[4].
- Nonlinear Effects: Research suggests that heatwaves have a nonlinear impact on prices, meaning that the impact on prices is not directly proportional to the severity of the heatwave. Such nonlinear effects can lead to sudden and significant price increases in food products[1].
Economic Implications
- Inflationary Pressure: Reduced food product availability due to climate-induced shocks can lead to increased prices, fostering broader inflation trends. This is particularly true for staple foods, as sudden price hikes can ripple through the overall inflation[1].
- Impact on Farmers and Communities: Extreme weather events can significantly impact farmers and rural communities, disrupting their livelihoods and potentially leading to long-term economic instability. This instability can further exacerbate price increases as farmers adjust pricing to maintain profitability[3][4].
Germany's weather is already 2.5°C above pre-industrial levels. To compensate for increased evaporation, it "should rain 15 to 20% more," says agricultural meteorologist Brömser. "However, rainfall during the growing season has remained stable." Therefore, agricultural challenges will intensify, and food prices will continue to climb.
Food price, climate change, heatwave, drought, inflation
- The ongoing community policy should address the potential impact of climate change on agriculture and food prices, particularly in the context of increasing heatwaves and droughts.
- Employment policy, particularly in the health-and-wellness and environmental-science sectors, may need to address the long-term economic instability faced by farmers and rural communities due to climate-induced weather events.
- Businesses, including those in the finance sector, should prepare for the economic implications of food price increases driven by climate change, such as inflationary pressure and potential shifts in consumer behavior.
- Employment policies in agriculture should consider the need for irrigation infrastructure to mitigate the risks associated with droughts and heatwaves, particularly in regions where crop loss could have significant socio-economic impacts.
