Cities at risk for potential impact of the Soviet space station's descent.
XF-351 (aka Cosmos-482), a half-ton solid sphere sent towards Venus five decades ago, is tumbling back to its launch site.
Image credit: Shutterstock.
Dr. Marco Langbroek, an astronomer at Delft University of Technology who specializes in tracking Earth-orbit satellites, is keeping a close eye on the impending descent of the Soviet XF-351 spacecraft. With his calculations, he's predicting the trajectory, time, and location of the anticipated fall.
Latest projections suggest that XF-351, a Venus-bound craft that missed its mark, will plunge back into Earth's atmosphere on May 10 at 10:34 AM Moscow time.
Probable re-entry timeline.
Now, Langbroek's not just stirring up fear – he's pinpointing a few major cities that could take a hit, including London, the first European capital on his list. Other cities on the list include Vienna, Brussels, Bucharest, and Budapest. Residents across continents should stay alert. Some African cities, like Durban, and Australian cities, such as Brisbane, are also on the list. Roughly half of Russia remains unaffected.
Re-entry pathway.
XF-351 is essentially a sturdy descent module that was meant to gently land on Venus. Despite its technical issues that kept it in Earth orbit for 53 years, the module has been steadily dropping ever since.
Possible landing trajectories.
To forecast potential impact sites, Langbroek peered at the cities on his spacecraft's path in various scenarios. Re-entry corridors for falling spacecraft are no secret – they're typically between 52 degrees north and south latitude.
The odds of "Kosmos-482" making a soft landing? Slim. If previous images of the satellite reveal any truth, its parachute won't deploy[4][5]. Dutch enthusiast Ralf Vandebergh snapped the satellite in 2014 and 2024 using ground-based telescopes. The sphere descending through the dense layers of our atmosphere will likely smash into the Earth at a blistering 8 kilometers per second. But it won't burn – it's built tough[6]. The impact will be substantial, but most likely it'll occur in the ocean, considering the oceans cover about 70% of our planet[1][2].
Big cities potentially in the line of fire.
London, UK, that teeters just north of the latitude, Berlin, Germany, and portions of Scandinavia.Much of the U.S. until just north of the U.S.-Canada border.Buenos Aires, Argentina; Santiago, Chile; Lima, Peru in South America.Cairo, Egypt, most of South Africa, and numerous other cities across Africa.Much of China and Japan, portions of Southeast Asia in Asia.
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- Dr. Marco Langbroek, an astronomer at Delft University of Technology, has been closely monitoring the trajectory of the Soviet XF-351 spacecraft, known as Cosmos-482, as it prepares to plunge back into Earth's atmosphere on May 10 at 10:34 AM Moscow time.
- Langbroek's calculations have identified several major cities that could potentially be affected by the re-entry of Cosmos-482, including London, Berlin, and various cities in Scandinavia, along with Buenos Aires, Santiago, Lima, Cairo, portions of South Africa, and numerous African and Asian cities.
- The dense layers of our atmosphere will likely cause Cosmos-482, a sturdy descent module, to smash into the Earth at a blistering 8 kilometers per second, but it won't burn due to its durable construction.
- With most of the planet's surface covered by oceans, it's likely that Cosmos-482 will impact the ocean, although its trajectory is still being carefully monitored by experts in the field of science, health-and-wellness, space-and-astronomy, and technology.
- Experts offer words of hope, advising residents across continents to stay alert as the descent of Cosmos-482 progresses, and emphasizing the importance of following safety guidelines regarding the handling of potential debris.
