Emerging Pandemic Zones: Recent Research Points Out Areas of High Zoonotic Risk Worldwide
The European Commission's Medical Countermeasures Strategy has reaffirmed the ongoing efforts of the Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA) in addressing the global threat of zoonotic diseases. A recent study by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and other related research has identified several key drivers that contribute to the emergence of zoonotic diseases, leading to epidemics and pandemics.
These drivers encompass a range of environmental, ecological, and human-induced factors. While the specific JRC study does not explicitly list these drivers, broader research in the field highlights the following key factors:
- Climate Change: Changes in climate conditions, such as higher temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, can facilitate the spread of disease vectors and pathogens.
- Land-Use Changes: Human activities like deforestation and urban expansion can lead to increased contact between humans and wildlife, elevating the risk of zoonotic transmission.
- Population and Livestock Density: Increased human and animal populations in close proximity can increase the likelihood of disease transmission.
- Biodiversity Loss: The reduction in biodiversity can disrupt ecosystems, potentially leading to increased interactions between humans and reservoir hosts of zoonotic pathogens.
- Invasive Alien Species: These species can act as hosts for zoonotic pathogens, increasing the risk of disease emergence in new regions.
- Human Mobility and Trade: The movement of people and goods across the globe can facilitate the spread of diseases into new areas.
The study demonstrates the value of predictive modelling in identifying high-risk zones and guiding targeted interventions. HERA's focus includes climate-sensitive priority threats like Ebola, Zika, and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, whose geographic spread and emergence are driven by climate change.
The study findings can inform efforts to prepare for and respond to potential outbreaks, helping to reduce the risk of future epidemics. The index combines the maximum risk of outbreak occurrence with country-specific data on zoonotic event response. Population density remains a dominant factor in amplifying risk, surpassing the contributions of other individual factors.
The study provides a global risk map and an epidemic risk index for each country, ranking Papua New Guinea and the Republic of Congo at the top. The authors emphasize the need for integrated approaches that include climate adaptation, sustainable land management, and public health preparedness. They also highlight the large potential of environmental policies, like sustainable land use practices and conservation efforts, to reduce pandemic risk.
By understanding and addressing these key drivers, the European Commission and HERA aim to mitigate the risks associated with zoonotic diseases, safeguarding public health and promoting global resilience.
- The European Commission's Medical Countermeasures Strategy, focusing on the Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA), recognizes the significance of understanding key drivers of zoonotic diseases, such as climate change, land-use changes, population and livestock density, biodiversity loss, invasive alien species, human mobility and trade, as they contribute to the emergence of these diseases.
- The index developed by the study, combining high-risk zones and country-specific data on zoonotic event response, highlights population density as a dominant factor in amplifying the risk of zoonotic disease outbreaks, surpassing the contributions of other individual factors.
- The study findings suggest a higher risk of zoonotic disease outbreaks in countries like Papua New Guinea and the Republic of Congo and advocate for integrated approaches that encompass climate adaptation, sustainable land management, and public health preparedness to mitigate the risks associated with zoonotic diseases.
- In line with these findings, the European Commission and HERA prioritize environmental policies such as sustainable land use practices and conservation efforts as important tools in reducing pandemic risk, safeguarding public health, and promoting global resilience.
