Japan Experiences Demographic Shift: Increasing Elderly Population and Decreasing Birth Rates
Japan Faces a Severe Demographic Crisis: Here's the Lowdown
Japan's demographic scene is taking a nosedive, and it ain't looking good. Recent government data reveals a whopping 44-year streak of falling child populations, hitting a record low of 13.66 million kids aged 14 and under as of April 1. That's a loss of 350,000 little ones compared to the previous year.
Kids now make up a mere 11.1% of Japan's total population, which clocked in at 123.4 million in 2024. For comparison, the U.S. had about 21.7% of its population composed of kids in 2023, while China's share stood at 17.1% in 2024.
This demographic crunch is one of Japan's biggest headaches, as falling birth rates persist despite the government's best efforts to persuade youngsters to tie the knot and start a family. Japan's total fertility rate (TFR)—the average number of kids born per woman over her lifespan—has been holding steady around 1.3, way below the 2.1 replacement rate necessary to keep a steady population.
The downward trend has been a grim constant, with deaths outnumbering births each year, causing a population shrinkage and far-reaching implications for Japan's workforce, economy, social security systems, and social structure.
In 2024, there were 1.62 million deaths registered in Japan, more than double the number of births. Marriages increased slightly, but remained low, while the number of divorces also witnessed an uptick.
Prognosticators predict the trend will persist for several more decades, with the decline partly irreversible due to Japan's "super-aging" society, where over 20% of the population is aged 65 and over. Japan's total population was 123.4 million in 2024, but it's projected to dwindle to around 88 million by 2065.
Tokyo, Elena Vasilieva
© 2025, RIA "Novy Day"
Key Factors Fuelling Japan's Demographic Fallout
Japan's demographic crisis is a complex issue, fueled by various factors. Here are the main culprits:
- Low Birth Rate: Japan has one of the world's lowest birth rates, thanks to economic chaos, costly living expenses, and exorbitant child-rearing costs like education and childcare[3][4].
- Economic Insecurity and Stressful Work-Life Balance: Young couples often battling financial instability and juggling work and family life find it challenging to have kids. The high cost of living and meager family support intensify these predicaments[4].
- Shift in Traditional Values: There's a growing inclination towards remaining single and abandoning conventional family structures. This cultural evolution leads to fewer marriages and, consequently, fewer babies[4].
- COVID-19's Impact: The pandemic made things worse by reducing marriages and births, magnifying existing demographic problems[4].
- Aging Population: Japan's elderly population is substantial, with a high proportion (20%+) of senior citizens. This not only increases the dependency ratio but also strains younger generations to support the eldery[2][5].
Government Actions and Hurdles
The Japanese government has rolled out several measures to tackle these problems, like enhanced kid stipends, enhanced childcare support, and affordable housing subsidies. However, these actions have proven to be inadequate to effectively reverse the trend. Moreover, efforts to lure foreign workers through schemes like Ikusei Shuro and local government initiatives aim to combat depopulation, but significant societal and economic transformations are required to address the underlying issues[2][4].
- Japan's low population growth is significantly influenced by its record-low child population, with a decline persisting for 44 years and the number of children aged 14 and under dropping to a record low of 13.66 million in 2024.
- The healthcare and wellness sphere is affected by Japan's demographic crisis, as a substantial portion of the population (over 20%) is aged 65 and over, leading to a high dependency ratio and strains on younger generations.
- While science and technology advancements continue to progress, one area where they may be insufficient is in reversing Japan's persistent demographic trends, as the total fertility rate remains below the necessary 2.1 replacement rate.
- As aging continues to be a major concern in Japan, the nation's population is expected to decrease from 123.4 million in 2024 to approximately 88 million by 2065, indicating an irreversible decline in the population. Aging and its related factors, like healthcare costs and workforce shortages, will pose immense challenges for Japan's health-and-wellness, economy, and social structure.
References:[1] RIA "Novy Day," 2025[2] Pew Research Center, 2019[3] OECD, 2021[4] The Economist, 2022[5] United Nations, 2023
