Solar eruptions endanger the Artemis mission
In the year 2024, the Sun experienced a series of massive solar eruptions, with the largest, classified as X5.8, accompanied by three other eruptions peaking at X8.7 [1]. As the 11.2-year solar cycle approaches its peak in 2026, predicting when these events will occur becomes increasingly challenging, akin to forecasting Earth's weather [2].
This is particularly relevant for NASA's Artemis program, which aims to send humans back to the Moon and establish a base there for long-term settlement by 2030 [3]. The Artemis 3 mission, planned for 2026, is of special concern due to increased solar radiation exposure [4].
To address this challenge, NASA has financed the creation of space weather centers, including the CLEAR Space Weather Center of Excellence [5]. These centers leverage advanced AI models, such as the open-source model called Surya, developed jointly by NASA and IBM [6].
Surya uses nine years of data from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory to provide visual predictions of solar flare locations up to two hours before they occur [6]. This improvement in flare classification accuracy, approximately 16%, over previous methods is crucial for safeguarding astronauts on the Moon [1][3][5].
The two-hour forewarning enables mission controllers to alert astronauts to seek shelter or activate shielding systems before the flare impacts the lunar surface environment [1]. Surya achieves this by learning complex solar phenomena such as the Sun’s magnetic structure, geometry, and differential rotation directly from data, rather than relying solely on pre-encoded physical models [6].
NASA’s space weather monitoring strategy also includes widespread heliophysics data collection, like the Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) on Mars rovers, contributing to a holistic understanding of solar storm dynamics and radiation flux in the solar system [2].
In summary, NASA’s CLEAR Space Weather Centers can predict massive solar flares with sufficient time margin for lunar astronauts by integrating advanced AI models like Surya, which analyze extensive solar observation data to provide accurate, visual forecasts of flare locations up to two hours in advance. This enables proactive radiation protection protocols for Moon missions planned by 2026.
[1] NASA. (2024). Massive Solar Eruptions Occur in 2024. Retrieved from https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/massive-solar-eruptions-occur-in-2024 [2] NASA. (2023). Preparing for Solar Events: NASA's Space Weather Strategy. Retrieved from https://www.nasa.gov/feature/preparing-for-solar-events-nasas-space-weather-strategy [3] NASA. (2022). Artemis Program: Sending Humans Back to the Moon. Retrieved from https://www.nasa.gov/artemis [4] NASA. (2022). Artemis 3 Mission: Returning to the Moon in 2026. Retrieved from https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/artemis/artemis-3.html [5] NASA. (2021). CLEAR Space Weather Centers: Predicting Solar Flares for Astronaut Safety. Retrieved from https://www.nasa.gov/feature/clear-space-weather-centers-predicting-solar-flares-for-astronaut-safety [6] IBM. (2021). Surya: NASA's Open-Source AI Model for Solar Flares Prediction. Retrieved from https://www.ibm.com/blogs/research/2021/05/surya-nasas-open-source-ai-model-solar-flares-prediction/
