The Cause Behind Japan's Plummeting Birth Rate in 1966 - And the Possible Repeat in 2026
In the year '66, Japan, bathed in the glow of its economic victory, was rapidly evolving. Shimmering metropolises were awash with neon lights, and trains so fast they were nearly invisible whooshing through the bustling cities. Everything appeared to point towards a vibrant, progressive future.
At least, that's what it seemed. The unpleasant truth was that Japan's birth rate had dropped like a stone the year before, in 1955. It was an abrupt, unexplained crash, shedding nearly half a million births from the usual count. The fertility rate nosedived from the typical 2.0-2.1 children per woman to 1.6, and the birth rate dropped by a staggering 26% - all without a war, famine, or economic upheaval. It was as if someone had pressed a pause button on procreation.
But there was no invisible hand at work. Rather, the culprit was superstition.
The Fire Horse Curse
The evil-doer was an age-old belief called Hinoe-Uma, or Fire Horse. This belief stemmed from the Chinese zodiac, which Japan adopted centuries ago. Every 60 years, the zodiac yields a Fire Horse year - when the fiery element aligns with the horse sign, creating a chilling omen. In Japanese folklore, such a union is considered a grave omen for those born under this sign, as they are thought to possess headstrong personalities and bring misfortune to their families, especially their husbands.
A Tragic Pattern
The last Fire Horse year prior to '66 was '06. And, just as before, the Japanese birth rate plummeted.
It's an eerie coincidence, and the root cause behind this strange pattern is steeped in old beliefs and superstitions. In the days before prenatal sex selection, couples had very little control over the gender of their children. Fearful of the curse, they chose to simply not have children rather than risk it.
Modern contraception was already popular in Japan, and abortions were not uncommon. "During the second half of '65", wrote sociologist Koya Azumi in '68, "the number of abortions escalated sharply. People were continuing their regular sexual activities but, for some reason, they were determined not to have children."
But there's more to this tale than meets the eye.
An Unusual Demographic Quirk
This stubborn adherence to superstition left an indelible mark on Japan's demographic records. Population pyramids show a distinct dip for the individuals born in '66. The United Nations data confirms that Japan's birth rate dropped by an extraordinary 20%, from 18.5 births per thousand in '65 to just 14.5 in '66.
However, the decrease in births wasn't the only anomaly.
Victor Grech, a pediatrician, and demographer noticed another peculiarity: the sex ratio, or the ratio of male births to total births, rose dramatically in '66. The number of boys born that year was remarkably high. Grech hypothesizes that parents may have purposely misattributed the birth year for female babies to '65 or '67 in an attempt to cheat the zodiac. In essence, people were trying to outsmart fate. He also notes that abortion likely also played a significant role in reducing the overall birth rate.
The pattern mirrored what had transpired in '06, the previous Fire Horse year. Then, too, the number of male births soared while the number of female births tapered off - with families either hiding the truth of their daughters' birth year or resorting to false birth records to create the illusion of a safer year.
A Redefining Moment in 2026?
The next Fire Horse year is 2026. Will the curse reignite?
By 1966, Japan had become an advanced industrial society, with literacy almost eradicated, urbanization reshaping the labor force, and mass media intruding on cultural norms. Yet, many families still relied on the zodiac to decide the fate of their daughters. Arranged marriages had dwindled since the 1940s, from 70% to just 5% by 2010, but the deep-rooted memory of these beliefs lingered.
Nowadays, most marriages are founded on love, not parental matchmaking. But superstition has not entirely vanished.
Such beliefs may look ancient, but you can find data to justify them.
In today's world, we pride ourselves on logic and reason. But the saga of the Fire Horse acts as a stark reminder that even in the age of science, ancient beliefs can persist, and that culture, not just knowledge, often shapes the choices we make about life, death, and the future.
- In contrast to the progressive future Japan was seemingly heading towards in 1966, the Japanese birth rate dropped dramatically in the Fire Horse year of 1965, shedding almost half a million births from the usual count.
- TheFire Horse curse, an old belief in Japanese folklore, is suspected to be the cause of this decline, as couples chose to avoid pregnancies rather than risk bearing children with the Fire Horse zodiac sign due to the superstition of them bringing misfortune.
- The unusual demographic pattern caused by the Fire Horse curse is evident in Japan's population pyramids, which show a distinct dip for individuals born in 1966. This drop in births was also accompanied by a dramatic increase in the sex ratio, with a higher number of male births in 1966 compared to the previous years.
- Pediatrician and demographer Victor Grech hypothesizes that parents may have misrepresented the birth year for female babies to evade the curse, either by changing the birth year to '65 or '67 or by resorting to false birth records.
- The upcoming Fire Horse year in 2026 raises the question of whether the curse will once again have an impact on Japan's birth rate, given the persistence of superstition despite advancements in science, logic, and reason.
