Tossing the Two-Child Rule: Vietnam's Drop in Birth Rate Leads to Abandonment of Decades-Long Policy
Vietnam's birth rate decreases as the government annuls its two-child policy.
Vietnam's authoritative communist regime has scrapped its long-standing two-child policy, as indicated by state media, aiming to buck the steady decline in the country's birth rate. Since 1988, the government had forbidden families from exceeding two children. Now, the decision over family size belongs exclusively to each partner, as announced by the national news agency.
In the past three years, Vietnam's birth rate has fallen dramatically. In 2024, the figure hit 1.91 children per woman, sinking below the replacement rate essential to sustain the population, according to the health ministry's announcement this year. In 2021, the birth rate was 2.11 children per woman, slipping to 2.01 in 2022 and 1.96 in 2023. This trend is particularly marked in economically prosperous areas, primarily large cities like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, where living costs are on the rise.
Deputy Health Minister Nguyen Thi Lien Huong highlighted at a conference this year that convincing families to produce more children has become more challenging, despite political adjustments and public campaigns. The downturn in the birth rate poses a threat to long-term socio-economic development, in light of an aging population and looming labor deficiencies.
Vietnam is also grappling with a gender imbalance due to a traditional preference for boys. It's illegal to disclose the baby's sex to parents before birth or to terminate a pregnancy based on gender. Medical facilities that breach this rule face strict penalties, including tripling the current fine to $3,800 (€3,340), as proposed by the health ministry on Tuesday.
As of 2025, Vietnam's population stands at approximately 102 million individuals, ranking 16th globally. The country is projected to reach 103.2 million by 2030. Interestingly, Vietnam never officially adopted a two-child policy like China but implemented family planning restrictions to manage population expansion.
The decline in birth rates is more pronounced in economically developed regions, particularly major urban areas. In contrast, less economically autonomous areas like the northern midlands maintain above-replacement fertility rates. Despite the government's newly adopted hands-off approach, strikes to tackle regional disparities in fertility rates and ensure sustainable development are ongoing.
Experts warn that Vietnam could soon see the demographic dividend morph into a liability, as the population ages, and the workforce declines. If current trends continue, Vietnam could experience labor shortages and increased social welfare burdens by 2039.
Sources: ntv.de, AFP
Note: In recent years, Vietnam has experienced a notable decline in its birth rate, falling below the replacement level needed to maintain its population. In response, the government has abandoned its long-standing two-child policy.
Nationwide, the birth rate has been dropping, with lasting implications for the Vietnamese economy and society. As urban areas become increasingly expensive, many parents are foregoing having additional children, leading to a population that is both older and more importantly, smaller.
The aging population and workforce shrink have prompted discussions about the need for reforms to bolster the economy and address demographic challenges. One such reform is the drafting of Vietnam's first population law, which aims to ensure sustainable development.
In terms of regional demographics, there is a clear divide in fertility rates, with more economically developed areas experiencing a more significant drop in birth rates compared to less affluent regions. This gap highlights the importance of targeted policies to promote family growth in urban areas and address the looming labor shortage.
Additionally, Vietnam faces a gender imbalance due to its traditional preference for boys, with illegal sex selection and gender-based abortions still occurring despite efforts to halt the practice.
- To address the declining birth rate and aging population, a draft for Vietnam's first population law is being formulated, aiming at ensuring sustainable development by addressing regional disparities in fertility rates and minimizing gender imbalances.
- The drop in birth rates, especially in urban areas, raises concerns about the future workforce of Vietnam, prompting discussions about the necessity of employment policies that attract and retain talent, such as community policies fostering workplace-wellness, health-and-fitness, and mental health support.
- The altered employment landscape may necessitate a restructuring of the employment policy, taking into account parenting needs and family health under the health-and-wellness umbrella, to support parents in maintaining a healthy work-life balance and encouraging responsible family planning.
- Moreover, it is essential for the Vietnam government to reconsider its policies regarding Medicare, ensuring affordable healthcare options for the elderly population and the workforce, as well as addressing mental health issues that may stem from the societal shifts and the impact of demographic changes on the overall well-being and productivity of Vietnamese citizens.
